Hold Your Horses on the Damage Assessment

Ignore the CNN story.

Natasha Bertrand just published a report, suggesting that Iran’s nuclear program has been set back by only a few months. The White House is disputing it. Neither is a credible source.

The story has already been proven not to be entirely accurate. Jennifer Griffin reported that the report is “low confidence” and only focuses on Fordoe (that’s how it’s pronounced; Fore-doe, not Fore-dow). The assessment focuses on satellite imagery and signal intelligence, though signal intelligence could just be scanning heat and electric signals coming out of the site, and that’s likely it. Griffin also reported that the entrances to Fordoe are caved in, which makes it impossible for the Iranians themselves to go in and do the damage assessment for us to eavesdrop on.

Satellite imagery is very unreliable in this case because bunker busters penetrate before exploding underground, and Fordoe is 300 feet below the surface. Assessing the damage from the space is impossible for that level of depth.